Possible future of Indian politics

Barring anything like an act of God or a sudden major development, the future of Indian politics, IMPO, looks like this

  1. Into the fifth gear it is Modi ji will pull out all stops regarding Indian economy. His unbridled power will start showing colour in 3 months’ time, as bureaucrats and technocrats start taking sensible strong followup action on his decisions. With no irritating allies to bother about, Modi ji will take BIG decisions.
  2. Yo! This will bring immediate cheer to the crores of Indians – especially youth – who are dying to see something positive in media headlines. Modi ji will try to generate as many jobs, as quickly as possible to drive home the message.
  3. Hmm…. The initial euphoria will sober itself out in 12 months’ time, as Indians re-discover that prosperity is as much a function of personal effort as the PM’s vision and decision-making skills, and that jobs don’t automatically come to the unskilled and the listless.
  4. Getting ready Modi ji (and Amit Shah) will tirelessly work for the 2019 elections, especially in states the BJP is weak. That will further change regional political dynamics.
  5. Bye bye dynasty The Congress is bound to rapidly decline. The signals from the defeat-acceptance speech yesterday are that dynasty is in no mood to go. I found Rahul’s constant grin absolutely amazing. It reeked of total insolence and disregard for the pain that millions of Congress supporters were feeling at that time.
  6. Vertical split Sonia ji’s health is a big question mark (God give her long life and good health) and Rahul is incompetent to lead. Priyanka stands checkmated due to Vadra’s follies. With every passing year, the dynasty will become weaker and a single genuine revolt by any one grassroots leader can lead to a vertical split in the Congress. After all, Morarji did it in 1960s against Indira, which forced her to assume her ferocious form.
  7. The AAP The AAP got 1.1 crore votes. That is very impressive by any standards (Congress, a 125 yrs old party, got 10.5 crore votes). If Kejriwal can hold onto this team, avoid making silly, megalomaniacal and irresponsible comments, he will be back in reckoning with the next first state assembly elections. Remember, people voted for a national government in May. Hence Modi. But when it come to state level issues, AAP and Kejriwal can swing it to their favour (provided they stop talking senseless stuff).
  8. Let’s be honest IMPO, the election verdict 2014 is not at all a verdict against the AAP. It is a verdict in favour of Mr Modi and the BJP. (although interesting to note that arrogant motormouths like the poet were punished adequately by the voters)
  9. So… So in 5 years’ time, the AAP can rise again, the Congress will go in decline, the various regional parties will slowly start polarising their traditional vote banks and gain what they lost, and 2019 will arrive.
  10. Big issues Corruption is a big unresolved issue. So the AAP’s main plank remains alive. How they develop themselves using that remains to be seen.
  11. Finally… I personally feel that perhaps by 2019, and definitely by 2024, the two major national forces can be the BJP (backed by the RSS), and the AAP.

But then, 10 years is a very long time in the future of a nation as complex as India. Totally new dynamics may develop due to international issues. Interesting times, these!

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