I’ve been hearing about it everywhere. I can imagine it as some kind of a fire breathing dragon who ate a lot of Mexican chillies, and got so agitated that he set his foot from Latin America and decided to drink the entire ocean up to the shores of India.
El Niño as it is known as, is a warm ocean current that originates in South America, and gives a mood swing to the weather cycles across all the countries that lie along the Pacific ocean. For vagabonds like me it may mean a ruined holiday, but for economists it means fluctuating droughts, floods, and a wreck on crop yields in varying regions of the world.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) says that there’s a 60 per cent probability of El Niño. The long period average seasonal rainfall during the period 1951- 2000 has been 89 cm. The normal monsoon, according to IMD, is 96- 104 per cent. In 2013, India’s monsoon was above average with 106 per cent rainfall, resulting in record grain production of 262 million tonnes. This year they say that it’s likely to be 95 per cent of the normal with a margin of plus- minus five per cent error.
Lets hope they’re not right. They anyway don’t have a record of making very accurate forecasts, although I’ve been hearing that they’ve been investing a lot in upgrading their forecasting abilities lately. But on a personal note, it has rained thrice in May already, in the small town somewhere in Northern India where I am currently located. And as I write this particular line, I can’t help but savor the delight of having a hot cup of tea, and sniffing the romantically misty air that is the loyal soul-mate of a beautiful rainy night!
However, mature decisions in life are taken not out of fantasies, but out of rational expectations. El Niño is expected to effect the prices of food this year, and not in a good way. So, like an amateur Financial Analyst who thinks too highly of himself, I have already advised my father to get ready to short sell FMCG stocks sometimes after July!