US Economy slowing down

[kgkid]

Ok, so i came across these pretty good articles and i would concur on few of their findings.

Considering that another round of recession can set in by end of 2007, what would the class of 2009 do?

CNN.com - Boom or bust? The global economy in 2007 - Sep 25, 2006
GSB news - Hedge Fund “Shakeout” Among Prognostications at 2007 Business Forecast

Please base your decision on WHAT an ISB or IIM business education cannot get you that an MBA in US can get you. Global outlook and international diversity is all good but prepare to work your butt off at an MBA in US. Whomever I have met, irrespective of school, has said that bschool in US is full time job search process too. Moreover, an international student has the very "international' against him/her in job process that was such a boon in admissions. On an average at any school, only 30-40% companies open for international students. Brand management is once sector that you will almost have no company opening doors for you. When i say 30-40% companies would open for international students, i mean that you would have to still compete with domestic students in US. Think about it. Asia is the next economic boom and one very estmeed personality has said that if you are not in India or China in the next 5 years then you have missed the bus.
I would strongly encourage a constructive discussion on this topic.

[iday]

Originally Posted by kgkid

Ok, so i came across these pretty good articles and i would concur on few of their findings.

Considering that another round of recession can set in by end of 2007, what would the class of 2009 do?

CNN.com - Boom or bust? The global economy in 2007 - Sep 25, 2006
GSB news - Hedge Fund “Shakeout” Among Prognostications at 2007 Business Forecast

Please base your decision on WHAT an ISB or IIM business education cannot get you that an MBA in US can get you. Global outlook and international diversity is all good but prepare to work your butt off at an MBA in US. Whomever I have met, irrespective of school, has said that bschool in US is full time job search process too. Moreover, an international student has the very "international' against him/her in job process that was such a boon in admissions. On an average at any school, only 30-40% companies open for international students. Brand management is once sector that you will almost have no company opening doors for you. When i say 30-40% companies would open for international students, i mean that you would have to still compete with domestic students in US. Think about it. Asia is the next economic boom and one very estmeed personality has said that if you are not in India or China in the next 5 years then you have missed the bus.
I would strongly encourage a constructive discussion on this topic.

I think experts are discussing on either sides

I remember reading an article on how the economy shows no signs of slowing down and has only a very positive future. The article said some thing like "the positive economy will continue at least for the next few years". I don't have the link to the article though!!!

It is also believed that even when the economy shows signs of slowing down, companies do recruit - albeit only in the top schools (each company will have their own list for this i guess). Even in a slow economy - business happens

slow economy or fast - we definitely have to work really hard to get those coveted jobs

And finally - i can always come back to India if that is where all the fun is
I dunno how the loan repayment would work if i come back!!! 20 years is a long time.

[jat_pagla]

Originally Posted by iday

I think experts are discussing on either sides

I remember reading an article on how the economy shows no signs of slowing down and has only a very positive future. The article said some thing like "the positive economy will continue at least for the next few years". I don't have the link to the article though!!!

It is also believed that even when the economy shows signs of slowing down, companies do recruit - albeit only in the top schools (each company will have their own list for this i guess). Even in a slow economy - business happens

slow economy or fast - we definitely have to work really hard to get those coveted jobs

And finally - i can always come back to India if that is where all the fun is
I dunno how the loan repayment would work if i come back!!! 20 years is a long time.

Couldn't stop myself my writing my views here!

I am one of those who have chosen the 'safer' path of applying to European schools.
Whenever I read stuff of 100k$+ salaries and bonuses to match that in US, I get all dreamy-eyed! But realistically speaking how many Indians do actually make it??!!

Maybe we can count them on our fingers, but the number entering the system is so much larger, in thousands!

The competition will always be there. Most of the Indian fraternity is from IT background. They have a tough time to break into the top IB/Consulting
firms.

Even in the IB world, Indians are given the backend number crunching jobs!! It's not the face that will appear in Wall Street Journal.

Very few who are born with leadership qualities and extra ordinary inter-personal skills skim up to the top!

And I believe even such Indians are usually who have been living in US or have done their masters in US. Please correct me if I am wrong.

And after doing an MBA from US top school, how many would want to return to India??!! I don't think many would want to, 'coz they have seen high-profile jobs and a work culture that is still absent in indian corporate Industry.

Certainly Indian economy needs MBA's, but I guess graduates from top Indian Bschools will rule the roost rather than US returned MBA's.

I am eager to hear the other side of the story...

[itsrahul]

Originally Posted by kgkid

Asia is the next economic boom and one very estmeed personality has said that if you are not in India or China in the next 5 years then you have missed the bus.

Completely agree on this. India v/s China is the hottest topic these days. I recommend reading the book "The World is Flat". It offers great insights into the economic changes India and China have been going through.
If we talk abt India, then we can expect major economic changes in the following sectors:
a) retail (the current big story - 200B $ market)
b) pharma (lot of money being invested here)
c) manufacturing (we still have a long way to go in terms of low cost, good quality manufacturing)
d) banking( with RBI's new policies to be implemented in 2009, banking sector will see a lot of activities)

If we talk abt China, its current strength is manufacturing. It lags behind in services because of the lack of English speaking ability of its people. But the dragon has awaken up to the need of the hour and is spending big time into English education. It will be a serious competitor to Indian services(IT) sector in the coming 4-5 yrs.

The talks about economic slowdown in US and Europe have been going on for quite some time now but nothing has happend so far. US economy is still doing good. In Europe, Germany has seen its lowest unemployment rate in the last 5 yrs. France and UK are still going strong. So, even though we might not see a dramatic economic slowdown in US and Europe, one thing is for sure: India and China will be the next drivers of world economy.

[itsrahul]

Originally Posted by kgkid

Global outlook and international diversity is all good but prepare to work your butt off at an MBA in US. Whomever I have met, irrespective of school, has said that bschool in US is full time job search process too.

It is not the case in just US bschools. Same thing is applicable to Europe as well. In fact, language adds another barrier to the job search process in Europe. I was told by the person who interviewd me that recruitment is very localized in Europe. Most of the companies in UK would generally recruit people from a tier-II school in their local neighbourhood rather than going to a tier-I school in another country. And if you want to work outside UK, you should be conversant in the language of the country you want to work in.

[shrp17]

Guys,

I must say that this is one of the very important discussions that seeks to bring us back to the world of reality away from the hype and hooplah created in the run up to the esteemed B-schools.

What makes it more important for a peson like me is that since I already have done my MBA from a Tier-II B-schools in India, the only reason I want to do it again is to gain a global perspective and give a push to my career, but certainly not at the cost of ruining what I already am doing. My take on this:

1. Discussions on the onset of recession or it's timing is easier said than done. Predicting that is certainly difficult, however a safer way to a find our way through that would be to be rather conservative and assume that the economy starts going down, in which case opportunities for guys from Tier-II B-schools across the globe reduce much more than they do for Tier-I B-school graduates.

As I-Day has rightly pointed out, business does happen in a recession also, but obviously all the employment stats take a hit (Salary, numbeer of ofeers etc etc..). Hence while joining a Tier-I global B-schools might still be risk free it may not be toil free......


2. As an alternative to american or european education, asian education offers lucrative opportunities. While on an absolute basis, American or for that matter European B-Schools dominate the rankings but as has been pointed out they don't do much as far as placement is concerned, since it becomes a pretty much localized activity. Hence schools based out of Asia do merit a consideration. Schools that come top most to my mind are Insead (Has a Singapore Campus), CEIBS, HK B-School, NUS, Nanyang, etc..


I have seen over the years that places like Singapore /Malayasia/Thailand/HK/Middle East present very good opportunities for Indians, and in that Singapore/HK and Dubai being primary business centers call the shots.

China though being a business behemoth presents little opportunity primarily because of the language barrier, but with the Chinese economy taking quick steps towards becoming english proficient, destination China might be the next big thing. Guys is it time to start exploring more about CEIBS (also ranked 21st in FT ranking 2006).......

[jat_pagla]

Originally Posted by itsrahul

It is not the case in just US bschools. Same thing is applicable to Europe as well. In fact, language adds another barrier to the job search process in Europe. I was told by the person who interviewd me that recruitment is very localized in Europe. Most of the companies in UK would generally recruit people from a tier-II school in their local neighbourhood rather than going to a tier-I school in another country. And if you want to work outside UK, you should be conversant in the language of the country you want to work in.

Completely agree, it's always gona b tough for Indians to get jobs, US/Europe!

But I feel Europe a lil 'safer' 'coz of the cost factor, the outstanding loans after MBA is not so high and always gives us an option(or the most wanted wishlist) of returning back to India! After all the BIG action's gona b in India!

[inblue]

There can never be a single answer because this a matter of getting into an equilibrium between personal and professional preferences. Some of us have a large risk appetite and less personal responsibilites. That might not be the case with all.

I guess, the real problem with getting a job post MBA is not getting the job but getting the permission to work. Most industries, ( barring Consulting and IB) have no experience in filing the Visa and getting people the work permit and stuff and that's one reason they refrain from offering /accepting international students.

[Suvrat]

I think the best way to combat the recession in US industry is to go on a big schol so that loan liability is low and make sure that you take your electives in upcoming fields in India like Supply Chain, Retail etc.
In case there is recession then even the campus placements of top B schools will be hit and guyz with huge loan liabilities might be under a lot of stress

[ChandanPanda]

Guys,

Check out this report. (Courtesy TopMBA.com - The leading information site for MBA applicants, students and the World MBA Tour). [freeware, hence posting it here] If you have time or are interested read it in detail. Else, search through the pdf, using the word recession.

In the context of MBA demand,, based on this report, I would infer that a recession in US economy in 2007-8 would correlate with the following,

1. Drop in MBA demand by 20% from it's all time high. Corresponding drop in average salary.
2. The least "sensitive" industry sector would be "General Industry". e.g FMCG
3. The most "sensitive" industry sector would be "Technology".
4. Consulting would be the fastest to recover from it, followed by Finance.

To put things into perspective, an MBA is a entry level criteria for the roles that I am targetting. Based on my age (29), now is the right time for a sabbatical. Recession or no recession, I have to do it. I would not be too worried about the effects on recession or its probability.

Had I needed to take a big loan to fund my MBA, then i would have worried about recession.

cheers,
C