[konqueror_vivek]

Earlier today I was reading an article by India's defence expert Bharat Verma published at SilicionIndia News Bureau. He pointed at Sub-continents' economic imbalance, and that might result in China attacking India in next 36 months - it was shocking to know anything like this, however, I would like to share this with PG Community here, which however, I believe is foolish


China to attack India by 2012: Defence Expert
By siliconindia news bureau
Monday,13 July 2009, 08:10 hrs


I have few questions
- Why would China choose to indulge in war with India at this point of time, when they understand India and the US have developed a close alliance after 26/11 in Mumbai
- China itself is badly occupied with so many problems, they are worst hit by recession in the region, and clouds of civil war mounting over major cities, reason being huge population density and unemployment after recent turmoil
- Various malls and shopping outlets are closed in China, especially diamond / gems business has got big setback after economic slowdown and consumer spending has decreased. How is it possible for China to deploy capital for war with India.
- China has made a tactical move by supporting India at G8 for pemanent member of UN defence council. It will be surprising if China attacks India after India actually gets in Defence council.
However, if something like this happens it will definitely affect Indian economy, remember we are running at 6.8% deficit and India is not in a situation to take on war right now.
Please pour in your views -
Cheers,

[GrimMan]

What I think the author is trying to convey is that the Chinese leadership will engineer an attack on India, to distract its internal dissidents.
An attack for such puposes is typically a low intensity, localised military action cloaked as rebel strikes, work of sabatouers ..etc. It may also be created by an intentional airspace violation by military aircraft. The intruding aircraft does not respond to Indian airspace controllers and quickly gets back to the border before it is intercepted.

The objective is to allow the Indian government to know that the Chinese are behind it and that it is intentional. An government here will publicise the issue and seek an international mandate. This would happen over a few weeks, during which China's internal problems would be in the backburner and a surge of Chinese nationalism will keep the top circle in China in power. The junior and mid level leadership may infact not be supportive of the top at present, but an event like this will polarize the population there.

The "strike" will only last for a few days and may involve heavy collateral damage in the area. This is to ensure that everyone here takes note and the government at home is pulled up to act.
Other countries, relying on business with both countries will make some noises and the matter will die down after that.

I don't think that the author implies that China will launch a full scale war or a nuclear first strike.

[gabriel666]

Bharat Verma is an idiot,and deserves to be ignored. I remember reading some articles by him before and most of them were jingoistic and devoid of rational thought. But he is not as a big an idiot as our former defence minister George Fernandes, who openly declared China to be our biggest enemy.

I agree with Vivek, I just dont see this happening, not even a localised attack as suggested by Grimman. Localised attacks does not work when you are two big countries that share a border (and not to mention both have nuclear weapons), which is the reason Kargil never went beyond the Indian borders. Also any such attack will see the international community led by US backing India and isolating China, which is not what any country that aims to be the next big power aims for.

But this does not change the fact that India needs to actively engage with China. The current strategy of the Indian government which is basically following the American theory of India being a counter weight to China in this part of the world is not in Indias interest. We share a border with China and America does not, we should be aiming to have a better relation with a rising China than a fading Superpower.