Equity Markets

[i_m_listening]

Originally Posted by konqueror_vivek

Option space is mere speculation, no one could rightly speculate excat levels for Indian markets,

i agree with you that the FnO space is based on pure speculation. However, it also helps u in guaging the overall sentiment of the market. like in this case, puts being active at 3900-4000 underscores a prolonged bearish sentiment for the indian markets

[konqueror_vivek]

Originally Posted by i_m_listening

i agree with you that the FnO space is based on pure speculation. However, it also helps u in guaging the overall sentiment of the market. like in this case, puts being active at 3900-4000 underscores a prolonged bearish sentiment for the indian markets

A bearish or a bullish sentiment is more inclined on tha fact, that whether an index is traded in discount or premium, and the Put to Call ratio. A 3900 Dec 2008 contract being most active dosent mean it is bearish trend, people might be (short instead of long) selling that contract which could mean bullish markets ahead. Also, personally I dont trust the number of contracts shown on nseindia.com, you might get to know the actual number of contracts for the instrument on dealers page (Trading terminal).

Cheers,

[xcoolaryan]

my point here is, if one goes by standard calculation method (how a value of a share is calculated), prices has come close to match those ...

eg. DLF or even Reliance, I remeber one analyst put value of Reliance Retail business at Rs.700/share even when Reliance is facing opposition all over country & it's retail business is yet to prove itself ... however, as per this analyst, since retail has 700 value, reliance stock should have least value of Rs. 3300 ( he assigned other reliance business at Rs.2600 / share)

we have seen same thing happens in case of L&T also where analyst has assumed unjustifed valutation for non-traded business ....

[i_m_listening]

Originally Posted by xcoolaryan

my point here is, if one goes by standard calculation method (how a value of a share is calculated), prices has come close to match those ...

eg. DLF or even Reliance, I remeber one analyst put value of Reliance Retail business at Rs.700/share even when Reliance is facing opposition all over country & it's retail business is yet to prove itself ... however, as per this analyst, since retail has 700 value, reliance stock should have least value of Rs. 3300 ( he assigned other reliance business at Rs.2600 / share)

we have seen same thing happens in case of L&T also where analyst has assumed unjustifed valutation for non-traded business ....

aryan, each analyst arrives at the fair value of a stock based on the some assumptions regarding estimated growth rates, profit margins, market penetration rate, revenue per customer etc. These estimates differ from analyst to analyst based on their perception, understading and experience of the sector, which is also the basis of their logic and conviction.

So, probably the valuation might seem unjustified in a given market scenario, there may be a perfectly logical basis for it. Now, in case of reliance, though it is facing stiff opposition in many regions, it still has the first mover advantage and the way it is integrating down the value chain, it has developed a robust business model. The resistance Reliance is facing in many regions may have clouded our judgement and has made us to ignore Reliance's brilliance in executing large scale projects that are value-accretive to shareholders.

[jshah29]

Originally Posted by konqueror_vivek

Also, personally I dont trust the number of contracts shown on nseindia.com, you might get to know the actual number of contracts for the instrument on dealers page (Trading terminal).

Cheers,

vivek, any particular reasons for that??

just to add on your posts - another way to guage the sentiments is to look at open interest positions.. see following article for more information

The Hindu Business Line : Profiting from open interest

Jaimin

[konqueror_vivek]

Originally Posted by jshah29

vivek, any particular reasons for that??

just to add on your posts - another way to guage the sentiments is to look at open interest positions.. see following article for more information

The Hindu Business Line : Profiting from open interest

Jaimin

Oh yes! I forgot to mention open interest, which is also a major parameter when you are having a watch on Put to Call ratio.

Yes Jaimin, I have seen quite a disparity between number of contracts traded shown at nseindia.com and on Trader terminal for same instrument.

[willsurelywin]

Guys
sensex has fallen 30% but some popular shares have fallen 70% which is shocking from peak

icici from 1500-600
dlf- 1300-390
all realty stocks, banking and construction stocks which were high fliers ...

even aviation stocks like air deccan have lost 40% in a week time

i mean the price damage is enormous and many inmvestorsd have lost 70% of their money already...

i really feel realty shares were the infotech shares of 2000 in this boom and rose 100 times in last 4 years and now fall has started and there is contious selling at every price for shares lie dlf unitech etc etc...
classic signs of boom being busted with fav sector in dumps...


now we already knw oil is at 143 and not falling which is hitting the whole economy .........

fiscal deficit is out of control

i really think as many people like soros, IMF says this is the worst recession of their lifetime we shd see a valuation of 9-10 p/e for sensex on a earning of 1000 for senses

so sensex shd be at 9000-10000 only.......

china has fallen 48% from peak and we r just 32% so huge downside still klleft in the markets........


ps: i hope oil falls to 100 soon or thinks r becoming uncontrollable .
general motors,ford and daimler r on verge of bankruptcy now just like airlines

[konqueror_vivek]

Originally Posted by willsurelywin

Guys
ps: i hope oil falls to 100 soon or thinks r becoming uncontrollable .
general motors,ford and daimler r on verge of bankruptcy now just like airlines

Oil probably will not fall below $130, serious demand crises will occur if US does any stupid move towards Iran (Iran exports 60% of Crude). As you rigthly pointed that India is still over-valued emerging market when compared to its Asian counterparts, example Shanghai. I guess soon the economic pages of newspapers will be filled with hostile takeovers, who knows, when the big fishes will eat up small fishes - which are starving for capital!
GM is on the verge of bankruptcy for a different reason, GMAC LLC and Residential Capital, both subsidiaries of GM have huge Mortgage portfolio. Residential Capital's debt is now termed Distressed by big rating agencies. GMAC has a debt of $185 billion and Residential Cap has around $50 billion, combine those two numbers, will be sufficient money to buy some small country

[raghav507]

Originally Posted by konqueror_vivek

Oil probably will not fall below $130, serious demand crises will occur if US does any stupid move towards Iran (Iran exports 60% of Crude).

--------------------

hi Vivek,
i agree with you...
but as a matter of opinion I'd like you to see this article also...
i think tthis is possible in the near future...

[firewire1234]

Well...for all those college goin guys... who think they are the masters of stock market... for all those who thought they can milk the money... here's an eye-opening article on how a collegian lost all his savings due to the greed of stock market!!

Hope after reading this people stop gambling... as mentioned in the first post of this thread... dat day tradin can only end u up as a broke!!

Armaan!

Article:This collegian lost Rs 40,000 at the market