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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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subodh_iit
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 02:02 PM

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Originally Posted by crazyphoton View Post
(a) wot do u mean by "rather than decreasing the assets, it let the leverage increase"?? when your assets decrease on the balance sheet(in LCTM's case, the value of the portfolio of its investments), liabilities also have to decrease by the same amount. Now liabilities are comprised of debt and equity. you can't reduce the debt component (until u pay it back), and hence any reduction in assets has to result in corresponding decrease in equity. now if debt has remained constant, and equity decreased, obviously the leverage is going to increase. LCTM did not do anything wrong here as u seem to be accusing it for, it is just a natural outcome of accounting.
I admit it could have been put in better words, but still the intent was understandable..

What I meant was when the capital started deteriorating due to reverse movements of the market, LTCM should have sold some assets to get back to a square position vis-a-vis leverage. Rather it hold on the assets. ** Hope you know that since LTCM had $140 billions of assets, a $4 billion reverse movement was sufficient to wipe out LTCM. So off course, assets were decreasing by Peanuts, but I used the term decrease for selling-of some assets to prevent the leverage from going up.

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btw, for information, JM never disclosed his problems to fed chief until the very last days of the fund.
Oh!! Did he tell you that? For your information, Meriwether had to leave the position of a Partner at Salomon in 1990 because he did not divulge something to the top officials, even though he divulged everything to his immediate senior.

So, in this case, he kept NY Fed chief informed abt every %age drop in LTCM's capital after it lost 30% of its initial capital.

Probably u need to know that Fed needs a sufficient reason before intervening. It would not have intervened if LTCM had solved all its problems by itself even after losing 90% of its capital. Or it wud not have intervened had it felt that LTCM's fall wud have no impact on markets. So just because Meriwether kept Fed Chief informed does not mean that he will intervene..


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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 02:11 PM

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Originally Posted by subodh_iit View Post
I admit it could have been put in better words, but still the intent was understandable..

What I meant was when the capital started deteriorating due to reverse movements of the market, LTCM should have sold some assets to get back to a square position vis-a-vis leverage. Rather it hold on the assets. ** Hope you know that since LTCM had $140 billions of assets, a $4 billion reverse movement was sufficient to wipe out LTCM. So off course, assets were decreasing by Peanuts, but I used the term decrease for selling-of some assets to prevent the leverage from going up.

Oh!! Did he tell you that? For your information, Meriwether had to leave the position of a Partner at Salomon in 1990 because he did not divulge something to the top officials, even though he divulged everything to his immediate senior.

So, in this case, he kept NY Fed chief informed abt every %age drop in LTCM's capital after it lost 30% of its initial capital.

Probably u need to know that Fed needs a sufficient reason before intervening. It would not have intervened if LTCM had solved all its problems by itself even after losing 90% of its capital. Or it wud not have intervened had it felt that LTCM's fall wud have no impact on markets. So just because Meriwether kept Fed Chief informed does not mean that he will intervene..
mr. peter fisher associate of mr mcdonough was the first fed official to see LCTM's books. When he saw it, LCTM's equity was already down to 1.5 billion only. page number 189, chapter 10, Book title when genius failed.

1.5 billion is definitely much less than 70% of 4 billion, i suppose.
   
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 02:20 PM

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Originally Posted by subodh_iit View Post
I admit it could have been put in better words, but still the intent was understandable..

What I meant was when the capital started deteriorating due to reverse movements of the market, LTCM should have sold some assets to get back to a square position vis-a-vis leverage. Rather it hold on the assets. ** Hope you know that since LTCM had $140 billions of assets, a $4 billion reverse movement was sufficient to wipe out LTCM. So off course, assets were decreasing by Peanuts, but I used the term decrease for selling-of some assets to prevent the leverage from going up.
disposing off assets at that time was impossible for LTCM even if it was ready to sell 'em for a loss. why? because nobody was ready to buy them. there were simply no buyers for it!!
as mentioned earlier in some post, there was a flight to liquidity at that time. i.e. investors preferred liquid assets and paid premium for holding a more liquid asset. JM's whole trading strategy throughout his life had been to exploit this liquidity preference and make money on any abnormal spread difference which may exist between a more liquid and a less liquid asset. So he always went long on less liquid asset (cheaper).

So when russia defaulted and an unprecedented flight to liquidity started, nobody was ready to buy less liquid assets! if LTCM had held these assets in less qty, it would have been able to sell it. However the notional value of these assets was whopping 1.2 trillion dollars. now u absolutely cannot sell that much of value in a market where nobody is ready to buy it.

so ltcm simply could not sell its assets to reduce its leverage.

nething more u wanna say mr _iit?
   
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 02:25 PM

Well leave Finance some mind blowing Physics is happening for the first time on PG ................What we can notice is that our cute Photon has just now met some anti-photon.or groan2photon ,to be precise.
I hope they don't meet and create extraordinary distruction
And otherwise also crazyphoton seems to have an LTCM like Groan/Thank ratio which he can't help increase either
Well kidding apart your points are well taken (other than those historical incidents , which I just don't see of any use too), and the failure to notice high VaR, in particular becuase of poor stress testing models used..............laid LTCM failure in identifying true risk and thus get bundled!

@crazyphoton...........It looks as if you have discovered some "GROAN TO ALL" button on PG................Please forward the link as Alwyn always remain in look for such innovative Pagals.

Regards
Andy


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NIBM
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Last edited by andy_jaan; 19-04-2007 at 02:30 PM. Reason: Crazy kiya RE!
   
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 02:33 PM

now this is an interesting thread....
adding to the previous posts... i would like to say that... the only mistake that JM made was put indisputable faith in the models that the academic traders had made. according to these models and their faith in them... the various assets and positions that LTCM had were under-valued and in a normal market they would absolutely right to expect the spreads to tighten and their entire losses being recooperated.... but due the devaluation of the Rouble and the "liquidity crunch" in the market, their was no one in the market who was willing to take any liquidit risk.

this is illustrated when the author says.. that there were days in the market where the volume of trades in total was in just 1000's of USD rather than the regular millions.
   
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 02:47 PM

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Originally Posted by subodh_iit View Post
As far as LTCM is concerned, it was a hedge fund and used trading in Derivatives and Bonds with high leverage to give the investors astronomical returns by betting on narrowing of spreads (the so called opportunities according to Black-Scholes Model).
mr _iit, kindly note that there was nothing wrong in LCTM taking a leverage of 28:1. in fact it was quite natural. just consider this:

suppose u have 100 rs. now if u wanna invest it, u wud like to take a risk on the entire 100 rs (dont know abt u mr _iit, but any other investor would do).
wot mr. JM did was to buy less liquid bonds (which traded cheaper than they shud hv) and sell more liquid bonds (which traded for more than they shud hv). Thus it does not matter to mr Jm whether interest rates go up or down, so long as the market realises this inefficiency and removes the abnormal spread difference.

now mr JM uses rs 48 to buy less liquid bonds. But in order to short the (more liquid) bonds, mr JM must have with him a collateral worth Rs. 52 to borrow the bonds in repo market. so he needs entire Rs. 100 to begin with whereas the risk he is taking may be on just Re 4 difference. (the money he gets from shorting the bonds is reinvested creating another cycle and so on)
but this is unfair isnt it! to invest rs 100 and take risk on only rs 4!! so wot would any sensible investor do? borrow 25 times worth your capital. which is wot mr JM did.
   
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 04:43 PM

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Originally Posted by crazyphoton View Post
but this is unfair isnt it! to invest rs 100 and take risk on only rs 4!! so wot would any sensible investor do? borrow 25 times worth your capital. which is wot mr JM did.
The risk return profile is not as simple as you put it .The fundamental basis of Portfolio management is that risk is proportional to reward.

In the above case Mr JM was leveraged 25 times so his losses occoured 25 times faster then they would have had the leverage been one.

If he did not have any leverage for the 100Rs invested he would have lost Rs 1 for every 1% loss on the portfolio ,now when the leverage goes to 25 for every 1% loss on the portfolio 25% of your capital is wiped out.

In Finance as in everything else there is no free lunch

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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 19-04-2007, 05:49 PM

This is one of my concerns...

Actually there r quite a few similar threads around and its becoming mushkil to keep a track of (all) of them...

Yes, not many r active...But even if I have to track 3 active and similar threads at A given time, can b tough...

Y not atlst merge the 2 most "popular" fin threads at the moment? This 1 with the one started by Bugs (prof calculus)...I mean, the dffrnces b/w these 2 threads is way too tiny for them to b left seperately...

Hope I made sensewa

Apunka last (rather 1st ) post there...

http://www.pagalguy.com/forum/prep-r...tml#post752237 (Eco Topics for GD/PI Prep By prof_calculus)


   
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 24-04-2007, 03:44 PM

A few months ago I had posted on the Predictive Analysis thread of how James Simmons a Maths Whiz was making a killing in the Hedge Fund Industry.This year too he tops the list with an eye popping $ 1.7 Billion in earnings !!!





http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/23/business/hedge.php?page=2


Hedge fund managers leading in race for riches


By Jenny Anderson and Julie Creswell
Published: April 23, 2007





NEW YORK: James Simons, 69, is a publicity shy math professor who uses complex computer-driven models to make bets on stocks, bonds and commodities, among other things.
His earnings last year? An astounding $1.7 billion.
As one of the leading hedge fund managers, Simon gets a paycheck that dwarfs those of the top chiefs on Wall Street. The highest paid on the Street, Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs, earned $54.3 million last year.
Simons is not the only member of the hedge fund billionaires club.
Kenneth Griffin and Edward Lampert each took home more than $1 billion last year, with George Soros missing the hurdle by a hair, give or take $50 million, according to an annual ranking of the top 25 hedge fund earners by the Institutional Investor's magazine, Alpha.





With the modern gilded age in full gear, hedge fund managers and their private equity counterparts are comfortably seated atop one of the most astounding piles of wealth in U.S. history. Their ascendancy has been aided by easy credit, robust markets and a fee structure that can produce staggering amounts of individual wealth.

Naturally, some look upon these masters of the new universe as this generation's robber barons, using wealth to create wealth, often in secretive ways, and leaving little that is tangible in their wake. Others view them as new economy financiers, evolving the likes of John Rockefeller or John Pierpont Morgan to provide liquidity to the markets and broadly diversify risks in the banking and financial systems.
"You had railroads in the 19th century which led to the opening up of the steel industry and huge fortunes being made," said Stephen Brown, a professor at the New York University Stern School of Business. "Now we're seeing changes in financial technology leading to new fortunes being made and new dynasties created."
But as hedge funds and their private-equity brethren begin to emerge more onto the public stage, playing increasingly bigger roles in art and cultural venues, tiptoeing into the Washington lobbying game, and even selling shares of their own firms to the public, all aspects of their activities, their own compensation in particular, is beginning to raise eyebrows.
"There is some question as to what the heck they are doing that is worth 2 percent of the assets and 20 percent of the profits," said J. Bradford DeLong, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley. "The answer is darned mysterious."
Indeed, to some, it is difficult to see the value created by a hedge fund that bets billions of dollars on movements in everything from global currencies, stocks and bonds to real estate, reinsurance and complex credit derivatives. Yet many, including past and current Federal Reserve Board chiefs, argue that they are greasing the wheels of capitalism, mitigating risk and increasing liquidity.
Recently, for instance, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee held hearings focusing on the potential risks to pensioners and the financial system caused by hedge funds.
While the debate rages, the new financiers are collecting piles of money not seen since the heady days of the Internet boom. But unlike the wealth of many of the dot-com billionaires, who saw their fortunes rise and collapse with the technology bubble, the hedge fund gains were not paper returns, but huge payouts, which most managers then reinvested in their funds, betting that they would continue to beat the markets.
Still, the performance of these managers is as varied as their strategies, ranging from complex computer models to the more old-fashioned version of betting the farm on a few stocks.
For its rankings on compensation, Alpha magazine includes the managers' share of the firm's management fees, and performance fees, or a share of the profit, which typically starts at 20 percent.
That structure means that some hedge fund managers can still earn a huge income even with mediocre returns because of the huge size of the assets under management. Raymond Dalio, head of Bridgewater Associates, which has more than $30 billion in hedge fund assets, for example, took home $350 million last year even though his flagship Pure Alpha Strategy fund posted a return of just 3.4 percent for the second consecutive year.
The magazine also includes gains made on hedge fund managers' own capital in their funds. Simons, for instance, has more than $1 billion of his own money invested in his funds.



At the top of Alpha's list for the second consecutive year, Simons, a former code breaker for the U.S. Defense Department, uses computer-driven models to detect pricing anomalies in stocks, commodities, futures and options. Even though he has some of the highest fees in the business - 5 percent of assets under management and 44 percent of profit - he trounces most of his competitors year after year. In 2006, the $6 billion Medallion fund posted gross returns of 84 percent; 44 percent after fees, explaining his $1.7 billion take away.
Some investors don't blink at paying those startling fees. "If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys," said Jim Dunn, a managing director with Wilshire Associates which, advises on investing in hedge funds.
While Simons makes his mark using algorithms, the two other billionaires on the Alpha list are building distinctive institutions. Griffin's Citadel Investment Group of Chicago is often cited as a budding Goldman Sachs, and Griffin himself is playing an increasingly public role in Chicago, with causes ranging from art to education. Citadel employs 1,000 people, more than half in technology. Griffin's funds, with returns of more than 30 percent, helped net him a nifty $1.4 billion.
Compare that with the elusive Lampert, who has $11 billion of his $14.6 billion ESL fund in the retailer Sears. Last year, Sears stock rose, and with it, Lampert's fortune, by about $1.3 billion.
And if the Internet age was defined by youth, the hedge fund age illustrates that experience pays.
The average age of Alpha's top 25 was 51, with only four 30-somethings on the list. Among them is John Arnold, 32, from Centaurus Advisors, who amassed net gains of 200 percent last year.
Arnold hails from the Enron energy desk, where he received a lifetime of trading and other experiences. His $3 billion fund, among the largest energy funds in the world, racked up huge gains by taking the other side of a natural gas bet that caused Amaranth to lose more than $6 billion in a week.
But it was some older, more familiar names that populate Alpha's list. T. Boone Pickens, the 78-year-old oil tycoon, made $340 million on the back of strong returns at his energy funds. Carl Icahn, 71, the reborn activist investor, made $600 million.
With a greater proportion of the assets in the hedge fund industry controlled by fewer managers, some investors worry that managers are at a turning point. The same young and brash managers who achieved huge successes are now controlling vast sums of assets and the incentive may be to protect their wealth, rather than take risks to increase it.
"I think one of the significant issues of this business that we are all struggling with is that there is an inverse correlation between compensation and drive," said Mark Yusko, president of Morgan Creek Capital Management, an investment advisory firm. "In many cases the incredible wealth that is created by this incentive compensation structure has a propensity to dull the senses and dull the drive."

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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance
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Re: Discussion on finance concepts/problems for people interested in finance - 24-04-2007, 04:02 PM

Hey Rajat,

I remember you mentioning once that you are very much conversant with Portfolio theory and equity analysis. If this be the case, it would be great if you could post some basic (followed with some advanced) stuff on these concepts.
Once the theory is in place, I shall post some problems on the concepts discussed to further aid our understanding on portfolio theory and equity analysis.

cheers,

-Vengeance


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Dad: Becoz you are Uncommon, dear son..
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