US Economy slowing down

Ok, so i came across these pretty good articles and i would concur on few of their findings. Considering that another round of recession can set in by end of 2007, what would the class of 2009 do? CNN.com - Boom or bust? The global econo…

Ok, so i came across these pretty good articles and i would concur on few of their findings.

Considering that another round of recession can set in by end of 2007, what would the class of 2009 do?

CNN.com - Boom or bust? The global economy in 2007 - Sep 25, 2006
GSB news - Hedge Fund €œShakeout €? Among Prognostications at 2007 Business Forecast

Please base your decision on WHAT an ISB or IIM business education cannot get you that an MBA in US can get you. Global outlook and international diversity is all good but prepare to work your butt off at an MBA in US. Whomever I have met, irrespective of school, has said that bschool in US is full time job search process too. Moreover, an international student has the very "international' against him/her in job process that was such a boon in admissions. On an average at any school, only 30-40% companies open for international students. Brand management is once sector that you will almost have no company opening doors for you. When i say 30-40% companies would open for international students, i mean that you would have to still compete with domestic students in US. Think about it. Asia is the next economic boom and one very estmeed personality has said that if you are not in India or China in the next 5 years then you have missed the bus.
I would strongly encourage a constructive discussion on this topic.

Ok, so i came across these pretty good articles and i would concur on few of their findings.

Considering that another round of recession can set in by end of 2007, what would the class of 2009 do?

CNN.com - Boom or bust? The global economy in 2007 - Sep 25, 2006
GSB news - Hedge Fund €œShakeout €? Among Prognostications at 2007 Business Forecast

Please base your decision on WHAT an ISB or IIM business education cannot get you that an MBA in US can get you. Global outlook and international diversity is all good but prepare to work your butt off at an MBA in US. Whomever I have met, irrespective of school, has said that bschool in US is full time job search process too. Moreover, an international student has the very "international' against him/her in job process that was such a boon in admissions. On an average at any school, only 30-40% companies open for international students. Brand management is once sector that you will almost have no company opening doors for you. When i say 30-40% companies would open for international students, i mean that you would have to still compete with domestic students in US. Think about it. Asia is the next economic boom and one very estmeed personality has said that if you are not in India or China in the next 5 years then you have missed the bus.
I would strongly encourage a constructive discussion on this topic.


I think experts are discussing on either sides :)

I remember reading an article on how the economy shows no signs of slowing down and has only a very positive future. The article said some thing like "the positive economy will continue at least for the next few years". I don't have the link to the article though!!!

It is also believed that even when the economy shows signs of slowing down, companies do recruit - albeit only in the top schools (each company will have their own list for this i guess). Even in a slow economy - business happens :)

slow economy or fast - we definitely have to work really hard to get those coveted jobs

And finally - i can always come back to India if that is where all the fun is :)
I dunno how the loan repayment would work if i come back!!! 20 years is a long time.
I think experts are discussing on either sides :)

I remember reading an article on how the economy shows no signs of slowing down and has only a very positive future. The article said some thing like "the positive economy will continue at least for the next few years". I don't have the link to the article though!!!

It is also believed that even when the economy shows signs of slowing down, companies do recruit - albeit only in the top schools (each company will have their own list for this i guess). Even in a slow economy - business happens :)

slow economy or fast - we definitely have to work really hard to get those coveted jobs

And finally - i can always come back to India if that is where all the fun is :)
I dunno how the loan repayment would work if i come back!!! 20 years is a long time.


Couldn't stop myself my writing my views here!

I am one of those who have chosen the 'safer' path of applying to European schools.
Whenever I read stuff of 100k$+ salaries and bonuses to match that in US, I get all dreamy-eyed! But realistically speaking how many Indians do actually make it??!!

Maybe we can count them on our fingers, but the number entering the system is so much larger, in thousands!

The competition will always be there. Most of the Indian fraternity is from IT background. They have a tough time to break into the top IB/Consulting
firms.

Even in the IB world, Indians are given the backend number crunching jobs!! It's not the face that will appear in Wall Street Journal.

Very few who are born with leadership qualities and extra ordinary inter-personal skills skim up to the top!

And I believe even such Indians are usually who have been living in US or have done their masters in US. Please correct me if I am wrong.

And after doing an MBA from US top school, how many would want to return to India??!! I don't think many would want to, 'coz they have seen high-profile jobs and a work culture that is still absent in indian corporate Industry.

Certainly Indian economy needs MBA's, but I guess graduates from top Indian Bschools will rule the roost rather than US returned MBA's.

I am eager to hear the other side of the story...
Asia is the next economic boom and one very estmeed personality has said that if you are not in India or China in the next 5 years then you have missed the bus.

Completely agree on this. India v/s China is the hottest topic these days. I recommend reading the book "The World is Flat". It offers great insights into the economic changes India and China have been going through.
If we talk abt India, then we can expect major economic changes in the following sectors:
a) retail (the current big story - 200B $ market)
b) pharma (lot of money being invested here)
c) manufacturing (we still have a long way to go in terms of low cost, good quality manufacturing)
d) banking( with RBI's new policies to be implemented in 2009, banking sector will see a lot of activities)

If we talk abt China, its current strength is manufacturing. It lags behind in services because of the lack of English speaking ability of its people. But the dragon has awaken up to the need of the hour and is spending big time into English education. It will be a serious competitor to Indian services(IT) sector in the coming 4-5 yrs.

The talks about economic slowdown in US and Europe have been going on for quite some time now but nothing has happend so far. US economy is still doing good. In Europe, Germany has seen its lowest unemployment rate in the last 5 yrs. France and UK are still going strong. So, even though we might not see a dramatic economic slowdown in US and Europe, one thing is for sure: India and China will be the next drivers of world economy.
kgkid Says
Global outlook and international diversity is all good but prepare to work your butt off at an MBA in US. Whomever I have met, irrespective of school, has said that bschool in US is full time job search process too.


It is not the case in just US bschools. Same thing is applicable to Europe as well. In fact, language adds another barrier to the job search process in Europe. I was told by the person who interviewd me that recruitment is very localized in Europe. Most of the companies in UK would generally recruit people from a tier-II school in their local neighbourhood rather than going to a tier-I school in another country. And if you want to work outside UK, you should be conversant in the language of the country you want to work in.

Guys,

I must say that this is one of the very important discussions that seeks to bring us back to the world of reality away from the hype and hooplah created in the run up to the esteemed B-schools.

What makes it more important for a peson like me is that since I already have done my MBA from a Tier-II B-schools in India, the only reason I want to do it again is to gain a global perspective and give a push to my career, but certainly not at the cost of ruining what I already am doing. My take on this:

1. Discussions on the onset of recession or it's timing is easier said than done. Predicting that is certainly difficult, however a safer way to a find our way through that would be to be rather conservative and assume that the economy starts going down, in which case opportunities for guys from Tier-II B-schools across the globe reduce much more than they do for Tier-I B-school graduates.

As I-Day has rightly pointed out, business does happen in a recession also, but obviously all the employment stats take a hit (Salary, numbeer of ofeers etc etc..). Hence while joining a Tier-I global B-schools might still be risk free it may not be toil free......


2. As an alternative to american or european education, asian education offers lucrative opportunities. While on an absolute basis, American or for that matter European B-Schools dominate the rankings but as has been pointed out they don't do much as far as placement is concerned, since it becomes a pretty much localized activity. Hence schools based out of Asia do merit a consideration. Schools that come top most to my mind are Insead (Has a Singapore Campus), CEIBS, HK B-School, NUS, Nanyang, etc..


I have seen over the years that places like Singapore /Malayasia/Thailand/HK/Middle East present very good opportunities for Indians, and in that Singapore/HK and Dubai being primary business centers call the shots.

China though being a business behemoth presents little opportunity primarily because of the language barrier, but with the Chinese economy taking quick steps towards becoming english proficient, destination China might be the next big thing. Guys is it time to start exploring more about CEIBS (also ranked 21st in FT ranking 2006).......

itsrahul Says
It is not the case in just US bschools. Same thing is applicable to Europe as well. In fact, language adds another barrier to the job search process in Europe. I was told by the person who interviewd me that recruitment is very localized in Europe. Most of the companies in UK would generally recruit people from a tier-II school in their local neighbourhood rather than going to a tier-I school in another country. And if you want to work outside UK, you should be conversant in the language of the country you want to work in.


Completely agree, it's always gona b tough for Indians to get jobs, US/Europe!

But I feel Europe a lil 'safer' 'coz of the cost factor, the outstanding loans after MBA is not so high and always gives us an option(or the most wanted wishlist) of returning back to India! After all the BIG action's gona b in India!

There can never be a single answer because this a matter of getting into an equilibrium between personal and professional preferences. Some of us have a large risk appetite and less personal responsibilites. That might not be the case with all.

I guess, the real problem with getting a job post MBA is not getting the job but getting the permission to work. Most industries, ( barring Consulting and IB) have no experience in filing the Visa and getting people the work permit and stuff and that's one reason they refrain from offering /accepting international students.

I think the best way to combat the recession in US industry is to go on a big schol so that loan liability is low and make sure that you take your electives in upcoming fields in India like Supply Chain, Retail etc.
In case there is recession then even the campus placements of top B schools will be hit and guyz with huge loan liabilities might be under a lot of stress

Guys,

Check out this report. (Courtesy TopMBA.com - The leading information site for MBA applicants, students and the World MBA Tour). If you have time or are interested read it in detail. Else, search through the pdf, using the word recession.

In the context of MBA demand,, based on this report, I would infer that a recession in US economy in 2007-8 would correlate with the following,

1. Drop in MBA demand by 20% from it's all time high. Corresponding drop in average salary.
2. The least "sensitive" industry sector would be "General Industry". e.g FMCG
3. The most "sensitive" industry sector would be "Technology".
4. Consulting would be the fastest to recover from it, followed by Finance.

To put things into perspective, an MBA is a entry level criteria for the roles that I am targetting. Based on my age (29), now is the right time for a sabbatical. Recession or no recession, I have to do it. I would not be too worried about the effects on recession or its probability.

Had I needed to take a big loan to fund my MBA, then i would have worried about recession.

cheers,
C

I agree with the comments made by some of you in regard to the "international" nature of job-seekers and it's effect on recruitment process.

One of my friends is graduating this year from Ross school , and she tells me that 60% of the companies require a green-card at the minimum to be eligible for the job. That's a bummer, when those 60% of companies consists of many large-scale top companies. I have lived in the US for more than 7 years (took a Master's deg from a reputed school), but still battle to get to the top of the hierarchy in my company. These people would not want "outsiders" to assume those jobs with greater responsibility. Thats a fact, and comes as no surprise as we are 'outsiders".

Anyways, some of the other friends tell me the same about MBA graduates - they can go upto only a certain level in the hierarchy. The two main reasons for this -
1) Non-immigrant status (H1-B), which puts the employer in a state of dilemma whether the employee can stay in the country after the stipulated 6 years. Furthermore, the ever changing immigration-laws cause unprecedented delays in obtaining a green card. (I am working/waiting for my green card since 4 years).
2) Lack of network - This is not India, where you can chill out with every other person. When it comes to drinking a beer these people are your best dudes.. but with money no one is with you. "International" nature.

In any case, if you are dreaming about top-level jobs in a top company in IB / consulting (even after graduating from a tier-I school), then better prepare for a long ride (green card is a major stumbling block, unless govt does something about the current pathetic backlog situation).


I guess, the real problem with getting a job post MBA is not getting the job but getting the permission to work. Most industries, ( barring Consulting and IB) have no experience in filing the Visa and getting people the work permit and stuff and that's one reason they refrain from offering /accepting international students.


You need to find out more about that bolded statement. You cannot get a brand management job even though they sponsor visa. You simply dont have the language/ accent that an american has. If you think getting into a BB IB firm or top consulting firm is really a function of what YOU are then think again.
Do one thing, reach out to current students and see where the indian students end up going. People in finance typically end up going to Merill Lynch and people in consulting typically go to Deloitte and Diamond Cluster. Those who dont get into either of these end up in Dell. You would see a very natural trend.

Yes, I met an indian guy who got into Bank of America Securities but he had an MBA from JBIMS in India and was working with Citibank Global Services in finance at Calcutta.

That is why i now wonder why people tell me that whichever top school you do an MBA, you would get the same companies recruiting and the same opportunities.

I think everybody should reach out to the current students in their target schools and talk to students who came from their background. With the exception of few deviations, most would end up having the same companies opening up.

You need to find out more about that bolded statement. You cannot get a brand management job even though they sponsor visa. You simply dont have the language/ accent that an american has. If you think getting into a BB IB firm or top consulting firm is really a function of what YOU are then think again.
Do one thing, reach out to current students and see where the indian students end up going. People in finance typically end up going to Merill Lynch and people in consulting typically go to Deloitte and Diamond Cluster. Those who dont get into either of these end up in Dell. You would see a very natural trend.

Yes, I met an indian guy who got into Bank of America Securities but he had an MBA from JBIMS in India and was working with Citibank Global Services in finance at Calcutta.

That is why i now wonder why people tell me that whichever top school you do an MBA, you would get the same companies recruiting and the same opportunities.

Well,

I did speak to current students of some of the schools i was interested in - specifically students from Chicago GSB and Kellogg. I am focussed on a IB job after my MBA and hence i had specific companies in mind (you'd know what the list would be 😃 ). I asked questions about these companies and generally abt consulting companies (fin consulting is plan B - havent done a lot of investigation here).

Lot of international students in Kellogg go the consulting way. You know the issue with obtaining a marketing job with a brown skin and fin jobs seem to be pretty unimpressive at Kellogg (their fin department/faculty is good though). The Kellogg students admitted this right away. But they said "when it comes to consulting, all the top firms have no issues recruiting internationals including Indians".

Speaking about Chicago GSB - all top IBanks and Consulting companies recruit here. The students i met said there will be absolutely no issues in getting a job in the company of ur choice if u do the necessary homework.

These were the words i heard from current students of these "top" schools. I had checked the placement stats of Chicago GSB and found Indians in the list of many of the top companies (GSB has lots of us - so there were enough of us to make it to all the lists )

I believe that the situation might be different in schools that are ranked lower in the eyes of the companies - i really have no clue! But if you get into a top school, i guess being an international doesnt affect your chances.

cheers.
But they said "when it comes to consulting, all the top firms have no issues recruiting internationals including Indians".

Please tell us which kind of consulting do you refer to. Strategy Mgmt Consulting, Fin Consulting, process/operations consulting... What?
Well,

I did speak to current students of some of the schools i was interested in - specifically students from Chicago GSB and Kellogg. I am focussed on a IB job after my MBA and hence i had specific companies in mind (you'd know what the list would be 😃 ). I asked questions about these companies and generally abt consulting companies (fin consulting is plan B - havent done a lot of investigation here).

Lot of international students in Kellogg go the consulting way. You know the issue with obtaining a marketing job with a brown skin and fin jobs seem to be pretty unimpressive at Kellogg (their fin department/faculty is good though). The Kellogg students admitted this right away. But they said "when it comes to consulting, all the top firms have no issues recruiting internationals including Indians".

Speaking about Chicago GSB - all top IBanks and Consulting companies recruit here. The students i met said there will be absolutely no issues in getting a job in the company of ur choice if u do the necessary homework.

These were the words i heard from current students of these "top" schools. I had checked the placement stats of Chicago GSB and found Indians in the list of many of the top companies (GSB has lots of us - so there were enough of us to make it to all the lists )

I believe that the situation might be different in schools that are ranked lower in the eyes of the companies - i really have no clue! But if you get into a top school, i guess being an international doesnt affect your chances.

cheers.


well you are right but some consulting firms such as Accenture Business Strategy Group just dont take without GC or citizenship. You will definitely find names of many indians on the list but find out whether they have GC or citizenship.
Another thing, I dont know a $hit about IB and neither i am interested but consulting firms such as McK, Bain, BCG are top shots. I dont know whether you are from an IIT but an IIT brand would play a big role. Top brand consulting companies typically see your undergrad institution/ pre-MBA workex company and then the school they are recruiting. These consulting companies really worry about the resume they would put forward in front of the client. This is just the fact. Not that the task is impossible to persuade them but i am just telling some ground realities.
imjimmy Says
Please tell us which kind of consulting do you refer to. Strategy Mgmt Consulting, Fin Consulting, process/operations consulting... What?

I did not particularly enquire about these. Strat consulting and fin consulting came up very frequently and i dont remember hearing about proc/operations consulting during both the meets.

well you are right but some consulting firms such as Accenture Business Strategy Group just dont take without GC or citizenship. You will definitely find names of many indians on the list but find out whether they have GC or citizenship.
Another thing, I dont know a $hit about IB and neither i am interested but consulting firms such as McK, Bain, BCG are top shots. I dont know whether you are from an IIT but an IIT brand would play a big role. Top brand consulting companies typically see your undergrad institution/ pre-MBA workex company and then the school they are recruiting. These consulting companies really worry about the resume they would put forward in front of the client. This is just the fact. Not that the task is impossible to persuade them but i am just telling some ground realities.

Okay - i failed to add that i dont know about the PR or Visa status of these people in "those" lists :)
also - i wasnt able to figure out their profiles. The list just had the names and the mail ids.

Yeah - i do accept that the "brand" could be a factor during recruiting.
The ever optimist i am, i can only say that lack of brand would only make the process difficult and not impossible :)

The same "undergrad brand" factor kept cropping up in the admissions scene as well, and i am sure many ppl in the admitted students list are not from the IITs. To look at this from a diff perspective, the schools wouldnt have admitted ppl like me (from a not IIT undergrad institute) if they had such a huge problem with it :)

As internationals, we definitely have to work a lot harder than the localites - agreed. But i'd never take "impossible".

PS: These views are from a to-be-job-hunter who has never been to the US. So take them with a pinch of salt, as they might change after i go through the job hunt process. I hope it doesn't 😃

Accenture requires a GC. But most of the top strat cos don't. Now I don't think all of them look for a top notch undergrad as well. Sure, the IIT tag does come up often, but that isn't the only way to make it to a top strat company.

Interview invites are trickling in @ Wharton and an average soul has over 6 or more invites .. provided they applied to as many companies and yet it is pretty competitive.

I have invites from McK, BCG & Booz and I don't think I have the kind of undergrad college pedigree lots of junta here have. But then some of the biggest undergrad name folks haven't received an invite at the consulting cos.

Just a note to inform you guys that not everything is one dimensional and this year is a good year to graduate




well you are right but some consulting firms such as Accenture Business Strategy Group just dont take without GC or citizenship. You will definitely find names of many indians on the list but find out whether they have GC or citizenship.
Another thing, I dont know a $hit about IB and neither i am interested but consulting firms such as McK, Bain, BCG are top shots. I dont know whether you are from an IIT but an IIT brand would play a big role. Top brand consulting companies typically see your undergrad institution/ pre-MBA workex company and then the school they are recruiting. These consulting companies really worry about the resume they would put forward in front of the client. This is just the fact. Not that the task is impossible to persuade them but i am just telling some ground realities.
pagalguy Says
This year is a good year to graduate

Oh - you can say that again and again...