I will share something from my upsc experience here.
2013 : regular Conventional paper ( adhered to past pattern) Gen Cutoff—240 ( exam included both cast+GS) so 240/400 was cutoff . highest cutoff in history of upsc.
2014: Unconventional paper. Gen cutoff 205/400. Every class , expert and pundits had quoted cutoff to be around 220 and not even a single below that(hangover of previous yr high cutoff). but cutoff went as low as 205.
2015: Regular Conventional paper. Gen cutoff 107/200 ( csat dropped .evaluation only on basis of GS). only one class had predicted that cutoff can breach 100mark figure)..rest all predicted cutoff between 90-100(( hangover of previous yr low cutoff).
2016: Unconventional paper. Cutoff approx 112-114. Evryone though cutoff would go low . they quoted 2014 trend where unconventional paper led to huge drop in cutoff…there is guy on forumias( portal of upsc) who goes by pseudonym ‘Indiabhai’. it is believed by aspirants that this guy has contacts in upsc and can atleast get access to some data prior to results( atleast cutoff and result date). he had predicted cutoff of 102-107. cutoff much more than that.
So you see in 2014 unconventional paper led to drop in cutoff but in 2016 cutoff went up.in 2014 many students stopped studying after prelims assuming 220 cutoff and wasted their time( including his highness). but when results were declared and they found they had cleared cutoff it was too late to finish mains syllabus.
moral is absolutely no one can predict cutoff not even the most learned statistician or analyst ( with due respect) for the simple reason that they are handicapped by the lack of data which is large enough to be extrapolated to reflect the trend of marks of millions of people. to analyze the trend for 27000 ppl u need authentic and well dispersed data of atleast 10% of that number ie 2500-2700 which is not possible.
That is y I stress that do not fret over by seeing result derived out of small sample size and don’t count yourself out atleast till the recruiting body notifies you the same. you never know what suprizes can be thrown at you…just be ready to catch them ..All the best ! :)
Cutoff: Jab jab dharti pe ibps ka pattern change hua hai tab tab mein full2 low gaya hun.......😉 kal b esa hi hoga.....
hum yeh yudh avashay jitenge....
Since it is getting very difficult to wait...Lets make a random guess about which bank will we get allotted tomorrow, please ignore cut off/logic etc, just go with your gut feeling..i myself have low marks. (All on a light note, dont get too serious)
Let me start with myself :- Central Bank of India.