Sorry for long post again. Some asked me to predict cutoff. this is what i think.
Here is my prediction for cutoff. 43-44 . After seeing this many eyes will pop out as many would say it unrealistically low cutoff. Some would say it as correct. And one would say that it is wrong as it is not 47.
To get to 43 first let’s see last 3 years trend. So now what everyone does is :
Take mains cutoff marks covert it to out of 80 .
Minus it from final cutoff.
You get the interview marks minimum needed to clear final cutoff.
Now you apply same logic to this year’s marks and considering vacancy you get to some cutoff.
But in the above analysis you miss some key points.
Let’s take past 3 years example and draw some insights.
2015
Mains cutoff: 76(200)
Overall cutoff:49.9
Minimum marks needed in interview for 76 mark candidate: 19.5
2016
Mains cutoff:52.5(200)
Overall cutoff: 39.9
Minimum marks needed in interview for 52.5 mark candidate: 18.9
2017
Mains cutoff: 82(225)
Overall Cutoff: 47.04
Minimum marks needed in interview for 82 mark candidate: 17.88
2018
Mains Cutoff: 74.5(225)
Overall Cutoff: 43
Minimum marks needed in interview for 74.5 mark candidate: 16.51
1> Mains cutoff does not imply that maximum candidates are present around that number. It may be that very few are on the nearby number of cutoff and the main density of candidates lies on cutoff+5 marks. So assuming that how a candidate scoring just mains cutoff number will clear overall cutoff ,if he needs to score around 18-19 in interview, is wrong. The marks where maximum density of candidates lies will drive the cutoff. That may be cutoff+2 or cutoff+5 or cutoff+10.
As you can see in 2015 and 2016 it was almost impossible for borderline candidates to clear cutoff. It might have been that very few candidates might have scored that cutoff nearby candidates but since 1:3 has to be called so they might have ended up in selected list. But real density was on cutoff+5 and that drove the cutoff.
2> Now let’s to most important point. Why ib_ps introduced 25 marks written test. Just to reduce the above effect mentioned in point1. They were also aware of the issue and so make interview relevant to even borderline candidates they added one extra section so that when they filter candidates for 1:3 ratio they get more evenly distributed candidates having scores close to minimum cutoff. So in 2017 you see little more realistic projection of what is needed for interview. IBPS wants to make interview more relevant to each and every candidate who qualifies even at border line. May not be fully possible but to some extent it can be achieved.
3> Not just the number of vacancy but also the density of candidates in cutoff+ certain marks drives the overall cutoff. If some says that vacancy is lesser than last year so mains cutoff and interview marks difference will be more as compared to last year. And you draw a conclusion that cutoff+21(in interview)=47 is cutoff. This is wrong. In between 12k candidates only they have to take top 4 or 5k in respective category, that does not mean that some unrealistic cutoff is needed. IT might be the case that in 12k the maximum scorers might be very close to cutoff. So in that case cutoff will be seen lesser than 43.
So for 2018 I predict 43 as cutoff. Rest you will see on 1st April. I may be wrong because I have not given exam and I don’t know how easy or tough paper was. One who has given a paper can more realistically say how scoring density might be. Please no abusive comments. Feel free to differ. It took me to sacrifice some free time to come up with this. So please no negative comments.