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KUSHAGRA
DOLLAR Vs YUAN OR Undervalued Yuan
- The dollar is on the decline, with its value having fallen by around 30 per cent
relative to other major currencies since 2002 and by close to 20 per cent in
trade-weighted terms.
- the balance of payments deficit amounting to 5.5 per cent of GDP and the fiscal
deficit to 4.2 per cent of GDP. With savings rates close to zero on average,
private spending is high in the US. But a large part of the demand this
generates spills over into the international market given the lack of
competitiveness of US producers.
- These deficits have not proved a problem because of capital inflows, including
in the form of investment of surpluses accumulated by foreign governments and
central banks in dollar denominated financial assets. The problem recently has
been that both private wealthholders and foreign governments have begun to
fear that the unsustainable value of the dollar spells a decline in the currency
that could sharply erode the value of their assets. The resulting rearrangement
of their portfolio away from dollar assets in favour of other currencies is what
explains the dollar's decline.
- All this makes the dollar's decline a problem for the rest of the world as well,
especially countries in Europe and in Asia, like China, that are heavily
dependent on the US market. Dollar depreciation increases the dollar value of
their exports to the US and undermines their competitiveness and recessionary
trends in the US would squeeze an important market for their exports.
- If China makes Yuan flexible - appreciate - more imports, less exports, large
capital inflows, more reserves, would make Yuan even higher and thus
destabalising and weakening the autonomy of monetary policy.
- China not happy - Li Ruoggo - Governor, Peoples Bank of China to US - dont blame
world for ur own problems - Savings in China 40%, in US 2% - so save more -
More wages in US to workers for less productive jobs - correct this -
discrimination in exports to China
- But China may succumb to pressure - US too important - 33% of Chinas
economy made of exports of which 37% goes to US