Where do we stand for CAT 2004?

[vinay_R]

hey folks,

am sure all of us who appear for AIMCATs or any other national mockcats might have wondered about how our rank in the AIMCAT may be projected to arrive at a realistic national rank - so that we know roughly where we stand in the overall competition i.e., with respect to ALL our fellow CAT aspirants - many of whom wouldn't be appearing for these mocks!

Having completed 10 AIMCATS, most of us would be having an idea of where we stand among the 13000 odd TIME students. Though the actual number of students who take CAT on Nov. 21st would probably be more than 1,30000 (based on the total number of students who took CAT 2003 - 1,27000), the number of POTENTIAL TOP 500 RANKERS *- Of particular interest to all those who average in the top 200/300 ranks in the AIMCATS - in CAT 2004, who are not giving the TIME AIMCATS would be in my view : A MAXIMUM OF 300! - I would like to know your estimates for the same figure : i.e., ACCORDING TO YOU, HOW MANY CAT ASPIRANTS ARE OUT THERE WHO ARE NOT PART OF THE AIMCAT COMPETITION, BUT WHO WOULD FALL IN THE TOP 500 RANKS IN CAT 2004? In arriving at a realistic estimate, it's helpful to consider the following factors :

1) About 400 TIME students got final selections last year - and going more by TIME's current standards than its performance growth in terms of the number of final selections over the last 3 years, I think it would mean ATLEAST 400 students of TIME would bag final selections even this time! - AMONG THESE 400 STUDENTS, I would say ATLEAST 200 STUDENTS WOULD END UP IN THE TOP 500 BRACKET IN THE REAL CAT!

2) One important factor in estimating the competition outside TIME would be to arrive at a realistic estimate of the number of non-TIME students who are good to be in the top 500 bracket : (Let this figure be X)

that would include primarily those who are going for ONLY IMS (i.e., they are not taking AIMCATS - am not sure but I would say this would be about 60% of X)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *+

those who are not going for either TIME OR IMS - say CL, CF, PT and the like (my estimate for this figure would be about 30% of X)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *+

those who are not part of any mock series (my take for this would be about 10% of X) !!!

Being from Bangalore and Hyderabad, I have a fair estimate of how many good students go for TIME around here and I think TIME does beat IMS this year in terms of the number of good students it has! - I would like to know how it is in other major cities : Kolkata, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai ...? Like, IMS might be having a good reach in and around Mumbai ... CL might be having a good presence in and around Delhi ... ? ... So folks, do pour in your views and estimates for the same to guage where we stand in the run up to Nov. 21st!

I hope the veterans in PG - especially those who have made it to the IIMs - will help us with their valuable feedback on these projections! -

(though am considering only the top 500 rankers here, am sure the same analysis holds good in estimating for the potential top 1000 rankers or above)

[starsunil]

this kind of an analysis is actually very difficult to make....

now look at this .. in the aimcat 504, when there was a perfomance comparision with the actual number of ppl who got into the iim's,
there were only 97 out of the top 500 students(in this test) that actually got calls..which means almost 400 didnt...and only 6 out of the top 20 actually got calls..mind you this was only GD/PI calls.. ...( i know its not fair to just take one sample and generalise the theory,but this is the only information available to us)..so iam not too sure if we can make such extrapolations.....correct me if iam wrong ...

sunil

[shrikanthk]

Hey Vinay,
It's great that you have started this thread.
I guess,top 500 ranking in the real cat would correspond to a percentile of 99.6+.
That's what the freshers must be aiming at to have a realistic chance of getting calls
from a ,b and c.
I'm an ims student in b'lore.AIR was 503 in sim1.That's not good enough as only 30k students took up the test.Had this been the actual cat,my rank would've been around 1500.
Btw, I was under the impression that ims is the most successful cat institute in terms of the number of students making it.You seem to suggest otherwise.Could anyone give the actual figures for time and ims in 2003 cat?

[abhishek123]

well, i would rather spend my time preparing for the exam but i dont mind playing around doing estimates sumtimes

sum very big assumptions youve made...10% of X, 30% of X !!!

well, i believe a better and more accurate way would be to ask your coaching institute to give you past data...what percentiles were the selected students scoring last year....ofcourse i am assuming the situation wont change drastically in one year.

Any reasonbale estimate would require a lot of data particularly bos we are talking about top 1% students so even minute error of 1% would make the estmate useless. Infact i would go on to say that a reasonable estimate is not theoratically possible bcos error margin in the parameters (final selections claimed by various institutes, number of students appearing in their mock tests, perfomrance of these students on final day) that lead to result is much more than 1%.

Anyways, fyi, around 25 people from my college manage to get final calls every year...and i havent heard anybody having joined TIME time this year...maybe 3-4 have joined IMS....mostly it is CL, some PT...and many infact have joined ROOTS (a new coaching institute with less than 100 students). So do not overestimate TIME!!

Also results claimed by coaching institutes can be very misguiding. Students join multiple institutes and so figure in list of multiple institutes. Many institutes iinfact buy out name s of selected candidates. Further some of their genuine students are correspondence course students who do not appear in tests.

Since no credible info is available. The best way would be to assume that quality of students does not vary across coaching institutes...this is reasonable assumption since number of students enrolled in the top four i.e cl, pt, ims, time are more or less same (or so do they claim). There is no reason why distribution of good students should differ from distributuion of total students registerd. CAT requires a lot of practice..which would require you to join a test series. There are people thugh who can manage by buying pirated stuff from market or giving only free mock tests....but this would be miniscal. Now why would a serious aspiant not join a coaching institute? bcos maybe by giving a mock test, he realised that he is too good to require any preparation. My intutition suggests that there are atleast 50 brains out there who can cack CAT without any preparation (and i know such junta)...but this is intution...not reasonable estimate...for accurate number, consult present IIM students.....but even if this number has error of order 100% that is this number can vary from 0 to 100, it doesnt effect my result to very lasrge extent bcos 5000/35000=0.14%

If that is so, you need to be in top 450(+or - 50) out of 35000 ....these are approximately those who have joined any of the top institutes(discounting for overlaps, big approximation again, since no data)...ive assuemd 13000 enrolled for each of ims, time, cl, pt.

So you need to be in top 45000/35000 1.28% (+ or - 0.14%) students of your coaching insti....that is 98.7% (+ or - 0.15%).

[abhishek123]

oh!! by the way....this is what you need to be in top 500 of CAT.....this does not ensure youll get a GD-PI call!! such an estimate would require consideration of many more parametes.

[IIMbthere]

Originally Posted by abhishek123 @ Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:52 pm

oh!! by the way....this is what you need to be in top 500 of CAT.....this does not ensure youll get a GD-PI call!! such an estimate would require consideration of *many more parametes.

Is it possible tht a person in top 500 clearing all the sectional cutoffs does'nt get even a single IIM call

i'll better ask my insti rather thn goin into this Data Interpretation which will faint even CAT topper

[Coolprincess]

Originally Posted by vinay_R @ Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:22 pm

hey folks,

am sure all of us who appear for AIMCATs or any other national mockcats might have wondered about how our rank in the AIMCAT may be projected to arrive at a realistic national rank - so that we know roughly where we stand in the overall competition i.e., with respect to ALL our fellow CAT aspirants - many of whom wouldn't be appearing for these mocks!

Having completed 10 AIMCATS, most of us would be having an idea of where they stand among the 13000 odd TIME students. Though the actual number of students who take CAT on Nov. 21st would probably be more than 1,30000 (based on the total number of students who took CAT 2003 - 1,27000), the number of POTENTIAL TOP 500 RANKERS *- Of particular interest to all those who average in the top 200/300 ranks in the AIMCATS - in CAT 2004, who are not giving the TIME AIMCATS would be in my view : A MAXIMUM OF 300! - I would like to know your estimates for the same figure : i.e., ACCORDING TO YOU, HOW MANY CAT ASPIRANTS ARE OUT THERE WHO ARE NOT PART OF THE AIMCAT COMPETITION, BUT WHO WOULD FALL IN THE TOP 500 RANKS IN CAT 2004? In arriving at a realistic estimate, it's helpful to consider the following factors :

1) About 400 TIME students got final selections last year - and going more by TIME's current standards than its performance growth in terms of the number of final selections over the last 3 years, I think it would mean ATLEAST 400 students of TIME would bag final selections even this time! - AMONG THESE 400 STUDENTS, I would say ATLEAST 200 STUDENTS WOULD END UP IN THE TOP 500 BRACKET IN THE REAL CAT!

2) One important factor in estimating the competition outside TIME would be to arrive at a realistic estimate of the number of non-TIME students who are good to be in the top 500 bracket : (Let this figure be X)

that would include primarily those who are going for ONLY IMS (i.e., they are not taking AIMCATS - am not sure but I would say this would be about 60% of X)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *+

those who are not going for either TIME OR IMS - say CL, CF, PT and the like (my estimate for this figure would be about 30% of X)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *+

those who are not part of any mock series (my take for this would be about 10% of X) !!!

Being from Bangalore and Hyderabad, I have a fair estimate of how many good students go for TIME around here and I think TIME does beat IMS this year in terms of the number of good students it has! - I would like to know how it is in other major cities : Kolkata, Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai ...? Like, IMS might be having a good reach in and around Mumbai ... CL might be having a good presence in and around Delhi ... ? ... So folks, do pour in your views and estimates for the same to guage where we stand in the run up to Nov. 21st!

I hope the veterans in PG - especially those who have made it to the IIMs - will help us with their valuable feedback on these projections! -

(though am considering only the top 500 rankers here, am sure the same analysis holds good in estimating for the potential top 1000 rankers or above)

oh my god! after reading this post the only thought in my mind where do i stand in terms od DI for Cat 2004. * *vinay that was great analysis. but u seem to be forgetting a very important factor out there. LUCK
. i know of ppl who topped aimcats and simcats and didnt get a call and also of ppl who never figured in the first 1000 ranks yet managed a call. basically it all depends on those two hours which decides ur fate. so analysis like this mite give u an idea of competition but blindly relying on it isnt goin to take us anywhere.
second thing coaching institute are just there to help us. IMHO its is aptitude that deicdes it all. nobody can gaurntee that by joining a particular coaching institute u will surely get a call. hence the exercise of establishing a relationship that 80% students of x class get a call and so on is in itself faulty.
anyways best of luck to all of u and remember 'competition exists to be beaten.'

[arnavsinha]

Originally Posted by betty @ Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:05 am

oh my god! after reading this post the only thought in my mind where do i stand in terms od DI for Cat 2004. vinay that was great analysis. but u seem to be forgetting a very important factor out there. LUCK
. i know of ppl who topped aimcats and simcats and didnt get a call and also of ppl who never figured in the first 1000 ranks yet managed a call. basically it all depends on those two hours which decides ur fate.

Come on...I've been hearing this since the time I began preparing for CAT. I think people just quote this without thinking much about it. The number of people who have been performing well consistently in Mock CATs are far more likely to do well in the actual CAT too, rather than those who haven't done well or are erratic in Mocks and believe that somehow miraculously things will fall right in the two hours on 21st!
And this is what trends have shown down the years, and that is logical too. So I think a rough estimate based on performance on Mocks is nothing faulty really, and in fact useful in gauging where one stands in the entire sample space.
I don't think there are many people who performed very different from their Mock Tests in the actual CAT. At least that's what I have seen.

[case]

Can any body give a rough estimate of the rank range required in actual CAT to be called for GD/PI by ABC.

[shrikanthk]

Hi case,
If you are a fresher(or <1 yr exp),without exceptional acads,you should score 99.6%ile+,and also clear sectional cutoffs, to be confident of getting calls from a,b and c.
That would mean a rank within 500-600.
This is my take.Could anyone corroborate this?