Kaaliya

@Kaaliya

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Negative German Yields Highlight Euro-Zone Woes - The Euro Crisis - WSJ

Yields on 2 year German treasury turned negative.:grin:

Its like depositing money with the bank and paying interest to it for the safety of the deposit.


Are u sure the deposits are safe....haha......:biggrin::grin:
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Finally its back......:biggrin:
Gears of war is back

Its called GEARS OF WAR : JUDGMENT and it looks like those prequel rumours were true.

The game would be revealed @ E3 2012 and will feature on GAMEINFORMER COVER (JULY EDITION)

here's the cover pic guys...






Possibly the biggest announcement of the year !!!

Dont miss MONDAY's E3 show guys....!!!!!!! :biggrin:
have fun !!!
Can you also state all the assumptions you have taken

Growth rate , Abnormal Growth to Constant etc

Have u also tried with other methods of valuation?


EDIT: Sir if you can attach the excel then it would easier to interpret :)


I have just plugged in the values from the FB's SEC filing....and have taken a conservative approach growth assumption in revenues of 40%.....

Of course the real analysis is a hell lot of pain in the butt,but the result is somewhat similar....so,have taken a lucid path....

Revenue multiple have been derived from its peers (GOOG,LKND,YHOO) ......

& yes,had also done a discounted cash flow analysis of the same .....result is almost same ......
aur SIR keh ke plz sharminda na kare.....!!! :)

P.S Will attach the detailed excel worksheet analysis on MOnday....actually away from home !! its :drinking::drinking:time !!!

Hope u wont mind :biggrin:
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Daemon_hunter Says
There was an interesting article on how much is FB worth at Facebook


Have done a quick analysis by TRADING COMPS method,which i guess is the best way to go about it...i have attached the image of the excel sheet as well....plz pardon sms lingo as i have done everything in a haste...all statistics in m$$'s(except per share data) ....



Now,one Q arises as to how to calculate the exact peer revenue multiple...well,i guess u know the answer....
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@kaaliya sir you were bang on with your predictions with 12% correction of FB shares so has it corrected enough? 27-28 level ?


I would be happy to see FB trading @ 23-24 levels....Though the stock is trading at levels where speculation comes into picture big time....

From valuation point of view 23-24 levels is what its true worth currently is...Anything below that would be a BUY for me.... :biggrin:
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kambarish Says
Can any1 tell me book or give a pdf from where one can learn about this pattern. This forms part of technical analysis right ?


If u are really serious about learning candlestick patterns buy Steve nison's seminar video series on candlestickcharts.com ....Nothing beats that !!!!!
I personally have been to his seminars and undoubtedly they are the best resource one can get on CC's.

When it comes to TA,BOOKS are not the way to go about it.:biggrin:
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Facebook must prove itself; may be overvalued by a third - The Economic Times

A fair analysis what do you think?

Wrote an article on Currency devaluation a few months back with a friend , sharing it here as i guess relevance of this topic has increased quite a lot ..

Devaluation Of Currency: A Bane Or A Boon? | MBA Skool-Study.Learn.Share.


Though i am not a big fan of Mr.Aswath damodaran :-P yet,i completely agree with most of his points.I think FB is overvalued by almost 40%.I have a strong feeling Q3-Q4 earnings will play a huge role in deciding the future of this company.Facebook really have to prove itself if it wants to compete with the likes of GOOG/MSFT.& why it got away with its IPO shares,being largely overvalued,just coz everyone thought that it has a Bazooka in its kitty.As a matter of fact,it was just another squirt gun.

A very apt comment by Mr. Damodaran to summarize the discussion --- "Facebook might be a great product but it's not a great company yet ". :
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But i think bottom-line is effected more due to the expenses made on promoting and launching the IPO

It has more than doubled the user base in India now to 51 million and india has become the third largest market for them after brazil , so some other things points a different picture

They are also launching a new facility of paid status messages etc which have been tested in NZ right now , so they are evolving new business models for revenue generation and are adapting

Mark has made a comment on how they cant take growth in Asian Markets for granted , so i am sure he is aware of the need for continuous innovation in the business :)


Sir,I know MARK is coming up with new user friendly features but i am afraid thats not how the market thinks......Market believes in what has been,not what could/can be.....For EXample:: Facebook's TIMELINE has been a huge disappointment.I think Products in the pipeline are not the way to predict the revenue growth esp. in high beta stocks.It can go either way.

And FB in INDIA def. has a huge user base but when we talk about the share of revenues from developed countries to developing countries the story takes a U-TURN.India def. has a huge user base but the revenue that FB earns from india/user is not even 5% of what it earns from U.S/EU

And we as analyst look at the revenue/user no. rather than just going by the demographics.isnt it??

FB def. is trying to adapt itself but currently the stock is overvalued,even the listing price of 38 $ is above par i would say....!!!

Also GOOGLE with its new user policies have taken a huge step this yr..It tracks almost everything now and all the details about site traffic/user interests/age/location etc etc is made available public so,i guess its easier for companies to market their product.It would be interesting to compare the growth in google ad revenues VS FB's next 3-4 Q's coz that would play a huge part in deciding the future of FB.According to me,google will hold its market share.(worst case)

P.S My personal take.I maybe wrong in my approach.
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Facebook got listed on the Nasdaq today. Would you buy shares at $40 a share? If yes, why? If no, Why not?

I thought it would fail. Presently it is a $40, $2 over its listing price of $38.

Mundane Musings: The Great Facebook IPO


In one word NO

Some pointers as u have asked to justify the answer:

1. The major reason why almost every analyst has a NO recommendation for FB shares is FACEBOOK itself !! Mark has gone mad and is charging exorbitant rates for ads on FB and the market is on a steep decline as far as ad revenue is concerned !!!

2. Revenue is on decline and Q1 results have been negative for FB,First time ever in the history of this company.

3. Other HOT BC IPO's like google,yahoo,MSFT when started trading on the exchange were backed up by strong Q-Q results whereas in case of FB,its just the opposite.

4. Google/MSFT/YAHOO are still a safe bet just coz of one factor --------diversification..Just imagine,if google only had ORKUT & Yahoo only had messenger as their major revenue source at the time of their IPO,their stocks would have been somewhat trading @ 1-2 $'s per share today

5. BIG US/EU Brands dont advertise (generally) in INDIA(biggest FB user base).....Thats also one of the reasons why FB revenues will follow a flat curve

I have valued FB in my excel spreadsheet....will post detailed analysis and valuation @ some later date...!!!!

Verdict-- Hell NO !!!
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Actually it is just derived by the Gold (US) estimates and Re/Dollar estimates

Gold (US) Estimate = $ 1000 - 1200 / Troy Ounce

1 Troy ounce = 31. 1034 grams

Hence, Gold (US) Estimate = $321.51 - 385.81 / 10 Grams

Re.Estimate = 60 / $

Hence Gold (Indian) Estimate = Rs. 19000 - 23000 / Grams.


bhai...re.estimate 60/$......agar aisa ho gya to bwala mach jaega.....
Ebay pe global easy buy pe ek toothbrush bhi 1000rs. ka ho gya hai...

On a serious note...Indian govt. cant afford rupee depriciation of such magni....
according to my calc. 60rs/$(on an average) will account to import bills of 430*60/50= >500billion$ which will account to a CAD of 8-9% of GDP.... ..............Crude getting to 89-90$/barrel(which in itself is quiet unlikely in near future) wont help much with rupee @65 level coz i guess crude is just about 30% of indian imports and with rupee @60-65 levels imports will cross the 500B$'s mark....Though,Ball is still in FINMIN court....Initiative is what is required.....!!!!

On a lighter note.....Pranab Da ko sourav da ki tarah tadipaar karva dena chahiye.... ABCLIKS bhai ko naya FM bana dena chahiye.....

P.S Whatever problem INDIA is facing today..90% of them lies in governance issues.....Policies are driven by political motives and Govt. is still eluded by a comparatively decent GR.....THE VERY FIRST PARA OF THIS YEARS ECONOMIC SURVEY TELLS THE WHOLE STORY.....Even the approach paper of the 12th 5 yr. plan paints a near impossible picture....Govt. should understand that growth is more than just numbers,which has not been the case since 1956......!!!
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